Big Tech cash flow and capex estimates for 2026. (BofA Global Research)
In 2026, Meta, Alphabet and Amazon are set to spend more cash than they generate in a costly race to dominate AI. Meta is expected to produce about $112 billion in operating cash flow, yet spend roughly $135 billion in capital expenditures. Alphabet is projected at $165 billion versus $185 billion in capex; Amazon at $182 billion versus $200 billion. The estimates, released earlier this month by BofA Global Research, stand in stark contrast to Rolex, which is controlled by the Hans Wilsdorf Foundation and must operate conservatively even as it expands.
Rolex’s largest recent capital commitment was the acquisition of Bucherer, estimated at under 5 billion francs. It has also purchased land in Bulle for 31.4 million francs, where it is planning a 1-billion-franc manufacture scheduled to open in 2029. The investment is spread over several years and directed into Swiss property, a safe asset whose value is unlikely to fall.
Even after distributing hundreds of millions of francs annually through its foundation, Rolex will retain more operating profit than Meta, Alphabet and Amazon, whose AI spending is projected to exceed their cash flow, an interesting twist in an age dominated by tech.
Still, the Swiss watch industry, including Rolex, is weighing how much to turn to AI at a time when customers turn to old-world watchmaking to escape it. At Rolex, Jean-Frédéric Dufour believes AI can help with quality control, as “it enhances human capacity,” he said at Dubai Watch Week in November. “You can replace the human eye with AI, and instead of controlling a sample of what you make, you can control 100 percent of what you make in the most accurate way.”
But Mr. Dufour also believes AI will have a limited role at Rolex. He said it should not replace personal interaction with clients or the watchmakers who assemble each watch by hand. “I think it’s very important we keep that in our industry. The final consumer wants to feel connected to something real,” he said.